- BTC could defy predictions of a prolonged correction in Q2.
- Holders have the opportunity to add to their portfolios since the transition into the bull region is still early.
That Bitcoin [BTC] was able to beat predictions of further decline into the new year was a testament to the coin’s willingness to change the market playbook.
The 70% hike in price also accorded it the plaque as the best-performing asset class over the sometimes correlating S&P 500 Index (SPX).
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024
But as Q2 begins, the conversations that preceded Q1’s performance have started to unfold again. However, CryptoQuant author and on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., opined that the current BTC state should act as a positive sign for investors.
Fewer risks, more rewards
In his analysis, published on 2 April, Adler focused on the impact the BTC Risk Index has had since November 2022. The Risk Index evaluates the threats that investors might face using the delta and market cap. As confirmed by the analyst, the metric had decreased to 1.78 at press time, from a maximum value of 3.34 in November.
A decrease in the index acts as a pointer for investors to accumulate and expand their portfolios. And usually, when the index increases, the BTC price decreases. When the index rises, the coin’s value increases. Also, since it has maintained a downtrend, it means that the opportunity could still be available.
However, Bitcoin’s trajectory may end in a bearish divergence soon, according to StockMoney Lizards, the Twitter-popular crypto trader. But he also admitted that the correction was necessary before the coin appealed to the $30,000 demand.
like in February, we now see a bearish divergence. Correction still very likely before we approach 30k. pic.twitter.com/atXM2aiBqa
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) April 2, 2023
Cracking the yoke of torture
On the other end, another CryptoQuant analyst who goes by the name “onchained”, weighed in on the matter. The analyst dwelled on the Short Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP) and Long Term Holder Realized Price (LTH RP).
Realistic or not, here’s BTC’s market cap in ETH’s terms
The LTH RP indicates the buying and selling pattern of long-term investors. Conversely, the STH RP tracks the average price moved in the last 1155 days.
Furthermore, he pointed out that the realized price which represents the average cost of all circulating Bitcoin decreased to $19,722 over the last week.
However, the LTH RP was $21,334 vis-a-vis the STH outpaced it at $21,742. Interestingly, this was one of the talking points of a recent Galaxy Research analysis. Like the full-service market research agency, onchained noted,
“The fact that the short-term holder’s realized price has exceeded the long-term holder’s realized price is significant because it has only happened three times before, and each time, it signaled the end of a bear market”
