Targets, Turnarounds & Terminal Debasement
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is forecasting a pause from the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, but with a caveat for risk-asset bulls.
In a new interview on Bloomberg, Dimon, a crypto critic, says that pausing rate hikes is probably the right thing to do at this point.
However, the CEO says that after a pause, the Fed will probably have to resume raising interest rates to tame inflation, which Dimon thinks will be more stubborn than originally expected.
“My simple view is that they’re right to pause at this point. There’s been a big increase, 500 basis points or so.
Take a pause, but I do think it’s possible that they’re going to have to raise a little bit more, that inflation is kind of stickier. I think people are coming around to that, which means rates may have to go up a little more. People should be a little prepared for that, just as a matter of managing your own business, be a little prepared for that, whether you’re a financial company or a real estate company.
The other thing that I’d be a little prepared for is the volatility that might very well be created by quantitative tightening. We’ve never really had quantitative [tightening]. [We’ve had quantitative easing] for the better part of 15 years, and now you’re going to see quantitative tightening, and I think the effects may be a little harsher than people expect, but hopefully we’ll get through all of that, and be okay.”
In Dimon’s latest annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders, he said that the US’ largest bank is prepared for potentially higher interest rates and higher and longer-lasting inflation.
Dimon said that assets across the board, including crypto and “meme stocks” are about to face the consequences of more than a decade of quantitative easing (QE) and the rapid expansion of the money supply.
“This period of QE also led to extraordinary liquidity (and a surging money supply) that undoubtedly drove increased prices across many investment classes – from stocks and bonds to crypto, meme stocks and real estate, among others. Importantly, this also increased bank deposits from $13 trillion to $18 trillion (and the now-famous uninsured deposits from $6 trillion to $8 trillion).
QE is now being reversed into quantitative tightening (QT) as the Fed grapples with inflation.”
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