Bitcoin’s activity stagnates despite price uptrend: Here’s why

• Bitcoin’s transition phase was at 227 days at press time, as the market was awaiting a bull run.
• Supply on exchanges dropped as HODLers continued HODLing.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price has finally broken through the $30,000 mark, thanks to its recent upward trend following several weeks of languishing below that threshold. 

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24

Although this surge may signal a bullish period for the king coin, a recent report from Glassnode suggested that the market was still transitional.

Bitcoin’s transition continues

Bitcoin has made a notable move in its price trend, surpassing the $30,000 threshold. Although this breakthrough is significant, it has not yet triggered a full-fledged bull run, as indicated by the data from Glassnode.

The market was still transitional at the time of writing, suggesting that further developments are needed before a sustained upward trend could be established. 

Previous Bitcoin market phases were easy to assess based on their duration to gain insights into what lies ahead. We could establish a benchmark by examining the number of days spent in bull markets, bear markets, and transitional periods.

The transitional phase is measured from a cycle’s all-time low (ATL) until a new all-time high (ATH) is reached.

Assuming that the lows experienced in November 2022 remain intact, it can be argued that the market has been in a transitional period for 227 days. Historical data indicates that previous transitional periods lasted between 459 and 770 days, suggesting that investors may need to exercise patience for an average of 8 to 18 months until a new market ATH.

Source: Glassnode

During these transitional periods, Bitcoin prices fluctuate within the range of the Realized price, and the Realized Price + 0.5 standard deviation band. It is important to note that, as of this writing, the bear market has lasted 593 days.

Current price trend

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $30,600, reflecting a marginal increase of less than 1% in its value. The ongoing trend exhibited a bullish nature, evident from the positioning of its Relative Strength Index (RSI).

The RSI was above 70, signifying a strong bull trend and an overbought condition.

Historical patterns have shown that a corrective trend typically ensues whenever the RSI enters this zone. Therefore, this suggested the possibility of an imminent correction shortly.

Source: TradingView

Supply on exchanges continues to decline

A consistent decline could be observed upon examining the supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges. As of this writing, the supply on exchanges accounted for 6.2% of the total supply, according to data from Santiment.

These figures aligned with the findings from Glassnode, indicating that Bitcoin holders were adopting a patient approach, eagerly awaiting the asset to enter a full-fledged bull trend.

Source: Santiment

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Furthermore, an analysis of active addresses and volume data on Santiment revealed that regular activities within the Bitcoin network persisted. This observation further reinforced the notion that holders were biding their time during the ongoing transition phase.

It suggested that they maintained their positions and patiently anticipated favorable market conditions before making significant moves.