- Exec predicts a bullish year for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana
- To him, Cardano’s prospects appear dim, however, signaling potential irrelevance
During a recent episode of The Wolf of All Streets podcast, Tom Dunleavy, Partner and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at MV Capital, projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit $100,000 while Ethereum (ETH) could see its value surge to $8,000.
However, he also anticipates that the top two cryptocurrencies could lose market share to Solana (SOL) as it rallies above $400.
Bitcoin’s most bullish scenario
Delving deeper into the rationale, Dunleavy suggested that $100,000 might be a bit light. Referencing historical patterns observed post-halving events, he mentioned,
“If you look at post-halving numbers, a 4X increase is generally what we’ve seen.”
However, he also cautioned that with only four instances to draw from, such predictions aren’t highly reliable. Instead, the exec proposed a solid base case of a 2x increase for Bitcoin.
Dunleavy further highlighted Bitcoin’s significance as the largest settlement layer by economic weight, suggesting its potential expansion into decentralized finance (DeFi). This evolution, he argued, is a logical step for the network, with an increasing number of protocols vying for dominance.
3. BTC $100k, ETH $8k but both lose mkt share to Sol as the rally continues@solana rises above $400 and sees record-high active addresses exceeding 1M some days. @SolanaConf is the must-attend event of the yr. @aeyakovenko still doesnt care about the token, only building (
) pic.twitter.com/xq8I6197Ji
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) January 4, 2024
Solana v. Ethereum
Dunleavy pointed to the Solana Saga mobile phone as a significant factor in his bullish position. The rapid sell-out of 60,000 Solana Saga 2 phones further exemplifies the growing consumer interest. In fact, despite some network outages, Dunleavy pointed out that SOL’s price has shown resilience. Moreover, the Jupiter (JUP) airdrop has also been creating a significant wealth effect.
“Jupiter is only 1/4 way done with their airdrop… so there’s going to be a ton more of those, and you’re just going to see that money slash around in Solana”
This strategy, while criticized by some as merely generating artificial liquidity, was defended by Dunleavy as a gateway that attracts users to real use cases and innovation within the ecosystem. He contrasted Solana’s approach with Ethereum’s. The platform has faced criticism for a perceived slow evolution towards an improved user experience and concerns over liquidity.
For their part, Ethereum researchers have proposed solutions such as shared sequencers to address these issues. However, the community is growing impatient with the projected two-to-three-year timeline for these enhancements.
“I think Ethereum’s either going to hurry up, or some of these other ones are really going to steal a lot of market share quickly.”
Meanwhile, Solana and platforms like Apto and Sui are quickly addressing market demands for usability and developer-friendly environments.
Is Cardano dead?
Dunleavy offered a critical perspective on Cardano’s (ADA) future, suggesting a bleak outlook for the once-promising blockchain platform. According to him, a new UTXO/EVM interoperable chain is poised to take its place. He attributed the platform’s challenges to a lack of essential features such as a stablecoin and a vibrant DeFi ecosystem, which is largely due to the limitations inherent in Cardano’s protocol mechanisms.
The exec also pointed to the leadership at Cardano, describing it as resistant to change and adaptation. This has led to immense frustration among developers and projects, pushing them to seek alternatives.
