Bitcoin [BTC]: On paradigm shifts and the possibility of $100k

• BTC showed similar signs that helped it reach its last ATH.
• Upward pressure increased as long-term holders decreased supply on exchanges.

Historically, the aftermath of every Bitcoin [BTC] halving lays the grounds for the resurgence of a bull cycle. The last time such a thing occurred, the king coin rose up and hit an ATH of 69,000. However, BTC’s trend, displayed in the first few months of 2023, seems to have detached from the usual preceding halving performance. 

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Is Bitcoin halving the license to 100k?

Well, according to oinonen_t, a CryptoQuant analyst, one reason for the unprecedented performance was the cryptocurrency’s divorce from correlating with NASDAQ. 

But more importantly, the analyst pointed out the market behavior usually observed pre-halving was already in motion. This could make it easy for BTC to reach $100,000 post-halving. 

Besides the decoupling from the traditional assets, oinonen_t noted that the market has been characterized by retail demand. He further mentioned that this was a similar situation that preceded the 2019 target of $46,093.

Source: CryptoQuant

An accumulation cycle denoted the level of buying or demand for an asset. Distribution, on the other hand, shows the level of supply or selling of an asset. Hence, the accumulation/distribution zone could be used to spot tops, bottoms, and trend reversals.

The analysis also pointed to the fees to reward ratio. This metric represents the percentage of fees acquired from the block reward. Prior to the BTC ATH, the fees to reward ratio hit 0.21 pre-halving. 

At press time, it was heading toward 0.1. Therefore, oinonen_t expects the BTC value to replicate the 2019 target mentioned above before the end of 2023. This would then propel the scarcity triggered by the Bitcoin halving and 3.125 BTC reward towards the $100,000 projection.

The rear end and the zeal to be in position

Interestingly, Glassnode’s data showed that the BTC was far from being overheated based on the indications from the Pi cycle. The Pi cycle uses the 111-day Moving Average (MA), and twice the 350-day MA to measure cycle tops.

Source: Glassnode

But since the 350-day MA (purple) crossed the 111-day (green), it signifies that BTC has not yet hit its peak. This could prove advantageous to those accumulating Bitcoin. 

In another CryptoQuant publication, onchained highlighted that Short Term Holders (STH) were selling at the time of publication. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024

Also, Long Term Holders (LTH) may have bought the dip since the exchange supply was decreasing. This could later translate into upward pressure on prices, as demand also increases. As with the recent occurrences, the analyst pointed out,

“When Bitcoin rises from a lower price range ($27,500-27,800) to above $28,000, it could suggest that long-term holders have bought the dip and are removing Bitcoin from exchanges, leading to a reduction in available supply.”

It is necessary to note that this projection contrasts that of Balaji Srinivasan, who predicted that BTC could hit $1 million in less than three months.