Analyst Raises Red Flag On Bitcoin Rally, Predicts Imminent Retreat After 35% Spike

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to consolidate above the $34,000 mark, aiming to surpass and reclaim its yearly high, theories suggest that a retracement may follow the current upward spike in the coming weeks. 

On this matter, the renowned crypto analyst known by the pseudonym “Crypto Soulz” recently shared insights on the potential short-term retracement for Bitcoin in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter).

BTC’s Local Top At $36,000 Signals Potential Reversal

According to Crypto Soulz, a key resistance level for Bitcoin is identified at $37,370. The analyst suggests that this resistance level will not likely be retested from the current position. 

Additionally, Soulz highlights that liquidity has been absorbed around $36,000, which he considers a “trigger” for taking short positions.

The analyst points out that the local top for BTC was observed at $36,000, where a long wick was formed, followed by a retracement. This price action is seen as a potential indication of a reversal.

Moreover, Crypto Soulz emphasizes using on-chain data as a confluence for BTC positions. Soulz highlights that the spot market showed an uptrend before the perpetual futures contracts followed suit. 

The spot order book (OB) is stated to be increasing but expected to decrease, along with the perpetual market. If $36,000 indeed serves as a local top, the analyst suggests that both spot and perpetual should subsequently decrease.

Furthermore, Soulz highlighted that BTC successfully broke through key technical indicators, such as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the 200-week SMA, and the 365-day SMA, which is currently acting as support. 

Ultimately, Soulz further states that there is no substantial liquidity available above $38,000. The analyst identifies two liquidity pools, as seen in the chart above: the first at $33,000, which he considers its initial target, and the second at $31,000, where a slight bounce may occur.

Bitcoin Potential As Store Of Value

In another development, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, delved into the characteristics of Bitcoin and its potential to serve as a store of value and hedge against monetary debasement.

Drawing parallels to gold, Timmer highlighted Bitcoin’s “unique attributes” and its ability to potentially gain market share in times of inflation and excessive money supply growth.

Timmer acknowledged that Bitcoin had followed a pattern of “boom-bust cycles,” much like its previous market behavior. However, he also emphasized Bitcoin’s evolving role as a commodity currency that aspires to be a store of value. 

Furthermore, Timmer described Bitcoin as “exponential gold,” suggesting that it shares similarities with gold but with additional growth potential.

While gold has traditionally been recognized as a store of value, Timmer noted its limitations as a medium of exchange due to its deflationary nature and lack of efficiency. 

Timmer drew attention to historical periods, such as the 1970s and 2000s, when gold exhibited strength and gained market share. These periods coincided with structural regimes marked by high inflation, negative real rates, and excessive money supply growth. 

Timmer hinted that Bitcoin, with its potential to serve as a hedge against inflation and debasement, could play a similar role in such environments.

Considering Bitcoin’s attributes and the changing macroeconomic landscape, Timmer expressed optimism about its potential to join the ranks of gold as a valuable asset. 

While acknowledging the volatility and speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s unique characteristics position it as a viable contender in the store of value space.

Currently, BTC is trading at $34,700, reflecting a 1.5% increase over the past 24 hours as it persists in reaching the $35,000 mark.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com