Balaji Srinivasan says that he’s not backing down from his bold call that Bitcoin (BTC) will explode to $1,000,000 on the back of a US economic crisis.
In March, the former Coinbase executive placed a bet that Bitcoin would reach $1 million within three months, largely due to failing banks and hyperinflation.
He previously said that bank runs happen much faster today, considering we’re living in a digital world.
“I think we see an exit from the US banking system towards Bitcoin over the next weeks and months and perhaps years to come.
The exact timeline of 90 days? You know, I don’t think it’s impossible that happens given how fast digital bank runs happen, but directionally it’s much easier. Timing is hard, prepping is easy.”
While many have interpreted Srinivasan’s bet as more of a statement or publicity stunt, he says he has no intention to backtrack on his call.
“Not backtracking on anything. I said 10% chance fiat crisis happens in months, 70% chance in years, 19% chance in decades, 1% in centuries. But 10% is very high, and worth drawing attention to. Others also believe the probability of sovereign default is at all time highs.”
The Bitcoin bull also points out that the likelihood of a US sovereign default recently hit all-time highs, potentially strengthening his side of the bet. He shares a chart showing the price of credit default swaps (CDS) on US 1-year bonds skyrocketing as of late.
“Had to work out legal details, but look for a bet update soon.
Meanwhile, markets also put the probability of US sovereign default at all-time highs. And that’s just debt-ceiling-driven explicit default. Doesn’t include all the routes to monetizing debt.”
Analysts at Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) analysts have warned that the effects of a US default on its debt could potentially be catastrophic.
“The consequences of a potential default by the US government extend beyond the immediate impact on holders of Treasuries. Major market dislocation and a sharp slowdown in economic activity could both be realistic possibilities.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $29,376, nearly 3,000% away from Srinivasan’s $1 million call.
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